Sunk Cost Stacy

A Logical Fallacy Parable for your kids.

Every month, Panalysis will publish a different Logical Fallacy Parable for children. These are aimed at ages 7-14. I encourage you to read it to your children or grandchildren or nieces or nephews or cousins. Do voices.

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Stacy loved going to the movies -- the stadium seating, the sounds from every direction, the big, giant screen, and the popcorn smell!  That’s why she was the first in line at the school raffle when they announced that one of the prizes was a movie ticket. And not just any movie ticket, but a special early showing a whole week before opening of Kwyjibo 2: Bananorama. Kwyjibo was her favorite movie, and she might get to see the sequel before hardly anyone else!  And also it normally cost $10 to go to the movies, but the raffle only cost $1. So she bought her red raffle ticket and put it under her pillow that night. 

“Oh, that would be so much fun if I win!  Being able to go for almost free would make going to the movies even better!  Oh, I wonder what that crazy ape Kwyjibo will do,” she mused as she drifted off to sleep. 

The next morning she put the raffle ticket in her pocket as soon as she got dressed. She looked at the ticket while she was on the bus, and memorized the numbers on it. “8443297. 8443297. 8443297.”  She listened to the school announcements with butterflies fluttering in her stomach. At the end of he announcement she heard, 

“And now, we’ll pick the winning ticket from our big bucket of raffle tickets. The movie ticket goes to whoever is holding the ticket with the following number!”

“8...4...4...”

Stacy tried to calm herself down. Most of the tickets probably started with those numbers. 

“...3...2..”

“This is very good!”  Stacy thought.

“...9…”

Stacy’s eyes got very big.

“...and the last number iiiiiiiiiisssss……….7.”

“YES!  I knew it!  WooHOO!!!!” said Stacy. 

She ran to the school office and showed her ticket. The principal gave her an envelope holding the movie ticket. 

“Now, Stacy, you should know, this movie ticket is good for one night only. Are you able to go this Friday to the Starlight Theater on University Avenue at 4pm?”  

“Oh, I wouldn’t miss it for the world!  Nothing could stop me from using this ticket!  Also, I wouldn’t want to waste that dollar I put into the raffle...Hahaha,” said Stacy. 

She ran outside and showed the ticket to her friends at recess. 

“I can’t believe you get to see Kwyjibo 2 before the rest of us,” said Kimberly. “That’s so cool.”

“Tell us the best part!  No wait, don’t,” said Latisha. “No spoilers.” 

“No spoilers, no spoilers,” said the other kids. 

“No, I won’t spoil it, but I am so excited!  But I’ll tell you if it’s awesome or not,” said Stacy. And she was excited. So excited that she barely slept that night. Which was a problem. Because she felt awful all day Wednesday, and the day after that her throat was scratchy and her nose was sniffly. By Friday morning, she had a full-blown flu. 

“Oh, I really don’t feel good,” she told her mom that morning, “but NOTHING can stop me from seeing Kwyjibo 2 tonight.”  

“But sweetie,” said Mom, “if you’re too sick to go to school, how can you go to the movies?”

“NOTHING, Mom. Nothing can stop me. See, I already spent a dollar to get that ticket. And this is the only showing. If I don’t go tonight, it’s a waste of a dollar!”

“But, dear, you feel really awful, and it’s only one dollar…”

“And, Mom, I told all my friends that I would tell them if it’s good or not. And they were so excited and a little jealous of me. They’re expecting me to tell them. I’m the only one in the whole school that can see it a week early, and everyone will ask on Monday morning how it was. I have a solemn responsibility to my friends!”

“Stacy, you have a responsibility to yourself to take care of yourself! You need your rest. If you go out tonight, you might make yourself even sicker. You can just go see the movie when it comes out next Friday. Maybe you can even go with your friends.”

“But Mom, that would be a waste of a dollar, and you taught me that wasting money is wrong, right?”

“Yes, dear, but…”

“Waste not, want not! I’m not wasting a dollar, and I’m not wasting my chance to be first!”

“But you know your father and I have to attend a fundraiser tonight, and you’ll have to bike to the movie theater, honey, and that’s a long two miles when you’re not feeling good.”

“I’ll be fine, Mom…”

Stacy was not fine. Her joints started to hurt and she felt so tired and stuffy and all around lousy. She tucked herself under her covers because she felt cold, and the thermometer said she had a fever of 101.8.

“Only the biggest Kwyjibo fan would still make it to the theater this sick! Good thing I am the biggest fan!” Stacy told herself.

Mom and Dad begged her not to go, but they said it’s her decision since she’s a young woman of twelve now. Stacy told them she would be careful and she wasn’t really all that sick anyway. But she was.

Stacy stuffed her jacket pockets with tissues and got on her bike. Even though it was only 3pm, the skies were way too dark. A storm was coming!

I can’t waste a dollar, and I can’t waste my chance to be first! I can’t let my friends down. They HAVE to know how awesome Kwyjibo 2 is, Stacy thought. She peddled on.

As she passed downtown, she turned the corner too quickly and hit her bike wheel on a little step ladder, popping the tire. She couldn’t ride!

But the bike shop was only two minutes away. She got there and found out a new wheel is twenty-seven dollars, or they could fix her wheel and have it ready tomorrow for five dollars.

“But then I’ll be late for the movie! Here’s twenty-seven dollars, please replace it right now! I have to get there, and I don’t have time <ah…ah…CHOO> to walk,” she said.

With the bike repaired, she raced off to the movie theater. A big truck passed her and splashed cold water all over her, drenching her. She was freezing!

“I’m not stopping now! This movie just went from costing me one dollar to twenty-eight dollars! I don’t care how miserable I get, this is happening!” Then it rained.

Stacy got to the theater at 4:08pm, got her seat, and sat down just as the previews ended. She had made it! But why was the air set so cold? She had to take her jacket off, and discovered her tissues were all wet and she had to blow her nose on the wet jacket. She certainly wasn’t going to miss a single minute of Kwyjibo 2!

The next morning, Stacy was very sick. Her Dad brought her soup, and her Mom brought her extra blankets and tissues and even went to the store to get more tissues. Stacy was miserable all weekend, but finally started to feel better Sunday night.

“Stacy,” said Mom, “why did you keep going on Friday instead of coming back home? You ruined your jacket and wasted over twenty dollars on a new bike tire, and you got so much sicker, and you were so miserable that entire trip to the theater and back!”

“But Mom,” Stacy said weakly, “I didn’t want to waste a dollar.”

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Why did Stacy want to go to the movie even when she was sick?

At what point should Stacy have turned around and gone back to bed?

What would you have done about “wasting” a dollar? What would you have done about not being able to tell your friends about the movie a week ahead of time?

Stacy messed up and fell into the Sunk Cost Fallacy. She was so scared of losing the benefit of the spent dollar that she made herself lose happiness and health and even more money. Stacy felt that she was committed down a certain path because she had paid to go on that path. But she should have jumped from that bad path and gone back home!

Stacy also had another type of sunk cost — she bragged to her friends about seeing the movie first. This social sunk cost made Stacy scared to not deliver on what she bragged about, even thought the path to get there was something none of her friends would have wanted her to go down. Her friends wouldn’t have wanted her to brave a storm while sick just so they could know if a movie is good! But Stacy felt she had to go down that path in order to make her look good to her friends, because she waved that ticket in their faces.

Don’t stay on a bad path just because you gave money to get on that path. Don’t stay on a bad path just so you can show up your friends. Be flexible and make wise decisions, and change your mind when it’s smart to do so. Don’t be a Sunk Cost Stacy!