How often do governments kill their own people? I am not talking about Civil Wars. I am not talking about governments killing other soldiers or even other civilians when they invade another country. I mean, how often and how much do governments massively kill their own people
With the 80 year timing you have rediscovered the Turchin Secular Cycle aka the Strauss & Howe Saeculum aka the Dalio World Order - a natural century, one long human lifespan. One interesting anomaly in Europe is that the wars at the 80-ish year mark after 1648 remained Cabinet Wars, even if at large scale. So it was almost two cycles 1648-1793 between the REALLY mass slaughters. And then 99 years 1815-1914.
But I might have discovered something even worse. This 80 year average time between horrors is what I get NOT counting any wars or civil wars. Not even counting pograms and slaughters by citizens.
This is just governments killing their own people in times of no war.
Strauss & Howe track generational dynamics. Dalio as an investor tracks finance cycles. Turchin as a historian tracks multiple factors but focuses on violence. Gateway books are "The Fourth Turning," "War and Peace and War," and "The Changing World Order."
One of the observations I've made on the 4G (four-generation) cycle is that mass violence tends to recur on that cycle - either internally focused, or externally focused, or both. Almost always accompanied by economic stress to collapse. You also get religious-spiritual revivals 20-25 years after a Crisis on an almost clockwork basis. The sheltered babies born after Hell rebel against the safety. 1783-1805 (Revolutionary War to Proto-Transcendentalism), 1815-1848 (Good work by Metternich, locked in an additional decade of stability for the old order), 1945-1965 (The Cultural 1950s to The Year America Went Mad).
Turchin also touches on the 2G cycle (the father-son cycle, no one wants to be dad, so every kid is similar to and romantic of the grandparents) and Dalio presents the first good and explicit explanation of the 10G regime cycle (political-cultural regimes live 250-ish years on average) I've ever seen, though it may be buried in Turchin and I overlooked it. Note how the last wave of nativism in America is marked by the National Origins Act of 1924, it is repealed with the Immigration Act of 1965, and a rejection of excessive immigration, even among the current first and second generation immigrants themselves, is back yet again in "the current year?" A consistent cycle of two generations.
With the 80 year timing you have rediscovered the Turchin Secular Cycle aka the Strauss & Howe Saeculum aka the Dalio World Order - a natural century, one long human lifespan. One interesting anomaly in Europe is that the wars at the 80-ish year mark after 1648 remained Cabinet Wars, even if at large scale. So it was almost two cycles 1648-1793 between the REALLY mass slaughters. And then 99 years 1815-1914.
What's a good Turchin primer?
Start with War and Peace and War, move onto Ages of Discord.
I will have to look into those, thank you!
But I might have discovered something even worse. This 80 year average time between horrors is what I get NOT counting any wars or civil wars. Not even counting pograms and slaughters by citizens.
This is just governments killing their own people in times of no war.
Strauss & Howe track generational dynamics. Dalio as an investor tracks finance cycles. Turchin as a historian tracks multiple factors but focuses on violence. Gateway books are "The Fourth Turning," "War and Peace and War," and "The Changing World Order."
One of the observations I've made on the 4G (four-generation) cycle is that mass violence tends to recur on that cycle - either internally focused, or externally focused, or both. Almost always accompanied by economic stress to collapse. You also get religious-spiritual revivals 20-25 years after a Crisis on an almost clockwork basis. The sheltered babies born after Hell rebel against the safety. 1783-1805 (Revolutionary War to Proto-Transcendentalism), 1815-1848 (Good work by Metternich, locked in an additional decade of stability for the old order), 1945-1965 (The Cultural 1950s to The Year America Went Mad).
Turchin also touches on the 2G cycle (the father-son cycle, no one wants to be dad, so every kid is similar to and romantic of the grandparents) and Dalio presents the first good and explicit explanation of the 10G regime cycle (political-cultural regimes live 250-ish years on average) I've ever seen, though it may be buried in Turchin and I overlooked it. Note how the last wave of nativism in America is marked by the National Origins Act of 1924, it is repealed with the Immigration Act of 1965, and a rejection of excessive immigration, even among the current first and second generation immigrants themselves, is back yet again in "the current year?" A consistent cycle of two generations.
Really interesting, thank you!