Interesting model, but is it accounting for the internal tesegrities of the nodes (countries)?
Peter Zeihan's basic points stand - the end of a capital rich era as the Boomer generation retires, the at least temporary withdrawal of American power, and the recent recalculations of Chinese demography - a population of 1.4 billion falling by half by at least 2070 and perhaps as early as 2050. Those are huge trends.
To extend your metaphor, the cell membrane of the Chinese node in the small world tensegrity network you're conceiving here is either going to shrink or significantly deform. The same is of course true for all other nodes (countries) in the network. These deformations in the shapes of the nodes themselves impose additional tensions and compressions on the overall tensegrity network, additional tensions and compressions beyond the scope of the toy model you have presented here.
I strongly suspect that war is very likely in a model where more of the tensions and compressions are accounted for.
A fascinating model. Do you have references and cites for math to a tensegrity approach? It reminds me of the old hydraulic computers used for financial modeling back in the 1950s.
Interesting model, but is it accounting for the internal tesegrities of the nodes (countries)?
Peter Zeihan's basic points stand - the end of a capital rich era as the Boomer generation retires, the at least temporary withdrawal of American power, and the recent recalculations of Chinese demography - a population of 1.4 billion falling by half by at least 2070 and perhaps as early as 2050. Those are huge trends.
To extend your metaphor, the cell membrane of the Chinese node in the small world tensegrity network you're conceiving here is either going to shrink or significantly deform. The same is of course true for all other nodes (countries) in the network. These deformations in the shapes of the nodes themselves impose additional tensions and compressions on the overall tensegrity network, additional tensions and compressions beyond the scope of the toy model you have presented here.
I strongly suspect that war is very likely in a model where more of the tensions and compressions are accounted for.
A fascinating model. Do you have references and cites for math to a tensegrity approach? It reminds me of the old hydraulic computers used for financial modeling back in the 1950s.
Thanks for this great article!
I agree that the dependence of China on Taiwan for semiconductors prevents a war.
But what if by 2035, Chinese companies reach the same technical level as TSMC?
They've already progressed a lot over the past few years: https://www.brookings.edu/techstream/lagging-but-motivated-the-state-of-chinas-semiconductor-industry/
Could they catch the US by surprise the same way they recently did with hypersonic missiles? ""The test showed that China had made astounding progress on hypersonic weapons and was far more advanced than US officials realised," the report said, citing people briefed on the intelligence." https://www.reuters.com/world/china-surprises-us-with-hypersonic-missile-test-ft-reports-2021-10-17/